Test Results Highlight Influence of Randomness

The results of this test are so important. They highlight the role of randomness on Meta advertising.

Test Results

I ran an A/B test of three different ad sets. Breakdown of performance looks like this…

  • Ad Set A: 80 conversions
  • Ad Set B: 100 conversions
  • Ad Set C: 86 conversions

Would you act on these results?

Meta thinks you should. According to the A/B test results, Meta has 59% confidence that Ad Set B is the winner. Maybe more convincing is that only 14% that Ad Set A would win if the test were repeated.

A/B Test

The Twist

Well, guess what? All three ad sets were completely identical. Each one was optimized for conversions using Advantage+ Audience and all placements. All three used the same ads.

And yet, Ad Set B ended up with 25 percent more conversions than Ad Set A. Why?

The reason is simple. Randomness is always a factor. These things will even out as you increase volume, but beware of random results from smaller sample sizes.

Advertisers make a big mistake by over optimizing based on things that could be random.

Go here to learn more about my test.

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